Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 131,775
2 South Dakota 128,398
3 Rhode Island 120,941
4 Utah 116,922
5 Arizona 113,543
6 Tennessee 112,628
7 Oklahoma 108,415
8 Iowa 107,659
9 Arkansas 107,633
10 Wisconsin 106,768
11 Nebraska 105,098
12 Kansas 102,597
13 South Carolina 102,135
14 Alabama 101,937
15 Mississippi 99,988
16 Indiana 99,595
17 Idaho 96,812
18 Nevada 96,188
19 Illinois 94,837
20 Wyoming 94,623
21 Montana 94,470
22 Georgia 94,020
23 Louisiana 93,311
24 Texas 92,973
25 Kentucky 92,710
26 New Jersey 91,487
27 California 91,091
28 Delaware 90,734
29 Florida 90,558
30 New Mexico 89,145
31 New York 87,125
32 Minnesota 86,899
33 Massachusetts 85,796
34 Missouri 84,791
35 Ohio 83,707
36 North Carolina 83,575
37 Alaska 80,473
38 Connecticut 80,030
39 Colorado 76,010
40 Pennsylvania 74,474
41 West Virginia 74,460
42 Virginia 68,619
43 Michigan 65,684
44 Maryland 64,095
45 District of Columbia 58,688
46 New Hampshire 56,527
47 Washington 45,619
48 Puerto Rico 42,406
49 Oregon 37,306
50 Maine 34,067
51 Vermont 25,774
52 Hawaii 19,649

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New York 410
2 New Jersey 373
3 South Carolina 278
4 Massachusetts 244
5 Delaware 243
6 Florida 229
7 Arizona 228
8 Vermont 212
9 Oklahoma 198
10 South Dakota 197
11 District of Columbia 191
12 Georgia 183
13 Pennsylvania 181
14 Kentucky 169
15 New Hampshire 167
16 Virginia 167
17 Tennessee 160
18 Mississippi 159
19 Utah 159
20 Minnesota 155
21 West Virginia 142
22 Indiana 140
23 Maine 140
24 Maryland 140
25 Texas 138
26 Nebraska 134
27 Illinois 132
28 Colorado 131
29 Rhode Island 123
30 North Carolina 122
31 New Mexico 121
32 Alabama 118
33 Nevada 118
34 Arkansas 117
35 Iowa 114
36 Michigan 113
37 Ohio 113
38 Montana 102
39 California 101
40 Puerto Rico 99
41 Wisconsin 98
42 Louisiana 90
43 North Dakota 90
44 Kansas 78
45 Connecticut 77
46 Missouri 70
47 Alaska 67
48 Washington 59
49 Idaho 54
50 Hawaii 51
51 Oregon 50
52 Wyoming 45

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,654
2 New York 2,460
3 Rhode Island 2,398
4 Massachusetts 2,381
5 Mississippi 2,287
6 Arizona 2,243
7 Connecticut 2,160
8 South Dakota 2,147
9 Louisiana 2,096
10 Alabama 2,069
11 North Dakota 1,940
12 Pennsylvania 1,905
13 Indiana 1,891
14 Illinois 1,816
15 New Mexico 1,816
16 Arkansas 1,762
17 Iowa 1,761
18 South Carolina 1,700
19 Tennessee 1,676
20 Michigan 1,666
21 Kansas 1,651
22 Nevada 1,635
23 Georgia 1,633
24 Texas 1,567
25 Delaware 1,512
26 Ohio 1,497
27 Florida 1,475
28 District of Columbia 1,459
29 Missouri 1,402
30 California 1,372
31 Maryland 1,315
32 West Virginia 1,297
33 Montana 1,293
34 Wisconsin 1,221
35 Wyoming 1,178
36 Minnesota 1,173
37 Nebraska 1,149
38 Oklahoma 1,145
39 Virginia 1,124
40 Kentucky 1,110
41 North Carolina 1,098
42 Colorado 1,054
43 Idaho 1,053
44 New Hampshire 870
45 Washington 670
46 Puerto Rico 646
47 Utah 616
48 Oregon 546
49 Maine 525
50 Alaska 399
51 Vermont 333
52 Hawaii 312

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Ohio 21
2 Delaware 9
3 Virginia 9
4 Arizona 6
5 California 6
6 South Carolina 6
7 Texas 6
8 Arkansas 5
9 Kentucky 5
10 Massachusetts 5
11 New Mexico 5
12 New York 5
13 Florida 4
14 Georgia 4
15 Louisiana 4
16 Mississippi 4
17 Alabama 3
18 Indiana 3
19 Nevada 3
20 New Jersey 3
21 Pennsylvania 3
22 District of Columbia 2
23 Illinois 2
24 Iowa 2
25 Michigan 2
26 Missouri 2
27 North Carolina 2
28 Tennessee 2
29 West Virginia 2
30 Connecticut 1
31 Maryland 1
32 Minnesota 1
33 Montana 1
34 Nebraska 1
35 New Hampshire 1
36 Oregon 1
37 Puerto Rico 1
38 South Dakota 1
39 Utah 1
40 Wisconsin 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Colorado 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Idaho 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Maine 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oklahoma 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 342,023 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 287,980 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,555 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 242,475 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 241,514 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 130,140 231 92
Richland South Carolina 100,893 1069 65
York South Carolina 96,352 1265 59
Orange California 82,714 1898 39
Pierce Washington 43,136 2902 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 3 99
Foard Texas 7,792 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,331 1857 40
Davidson Tennessee 1,259 1954 37
Richland South Carolina 1,219 2021 35
York South Carolina 1,210 2030 35
Pierce Washington 622 2708 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons